Our 2026 economic and market outlook has insights on who the winners could be if AI proves to be transformative.

Rapid evolution has increased AI’s potential to become a transformative economic force, with promising implications for productivity across industries. Adoption is accelerating, and while today’s AI leaders dominate headlines, tomorrow’s winners may look very different. The outlook for markets is nuanced.

This year, roughly 4.2 million people will turn age 65.* These individuals, collectively the so-called silver tsunami, are preparing to leave working life behind and enter a fulfilling and rewarding retirement.

Vanguard research finds lower-income workers driving job and income growth, while hiring and layoffs stabilize.

Local knowledge, global reach

AI exuberance: Economic upside, stock market downside

Whether in sports or financial markets, averages often grab headlines, but they can conceal as much as they reveal. Variation—including the dispersion of metrics like credit spreads for high-yield bonds—is the real story.

AI is reshaping financial advising by automating certain tasks, allowing human advisors to excel in empathy-driven tasks. Learn how to thrive in this hybrid model by combining AI efficiency with personalized client interactions.

Commentary by Qian Wang, Vanguard Chief Economist, Asia-Pacific, and Global Head of Vanguard Capital Market Research