Este mes, analizaremos a detalle las tasas de interés y los cambios en la anatomía de los rendimientos de los bonos.

Official data suggest slowing momentum in the labor market, with the unemployment rate rising to a 30-month high and a key job-creation measure at a three-year low. A slowdown would be expected given the high interest rates that the Federal Reserve has deployed to fight inflation. However, the recent data come with caveats, and still-strong wage growth underscores our belief that Fed rate cuts aren’t imminent.

The Fed likely won’t cut rates until core inflation hits 2.5%, which we don’t anticipate happening until 2025.

Daniel Shaykevich is a portfolio manager and co-head of the Emerging Markets and Sovereign Debt team in the Vanguard Fixed Income Group (FIG). In this conversation, he talks about opportunities for alpha, the impact of monetary policy on the asset class, and how an expanding number of EM issuers affects risk. Shaykevich and his team manage exposure across 19 Vanguard emerging markets portfolios with approximately $8.6 billion in assets.*

Remember the soft landing versus hard landing debate last year? As we’ve avoided recession but seen insufficient progress in the inflation fight, neither camp appears to have been correct. Now, at midyear, it’s increasingly evident that the economy’s “landing” won’t occur until 2025. What type still isn’t clear, but there are three distinct possibilities.

The Chinese government has vowed to transform its economy toward innovation and new or green industries. Its “Made in China 2025” industry policy has brought a surge in investment and production in new manufacturing sectors. But the surge may undermine long-term growth.

Despite the twist presented by an unexpectedly strong U.S. economy, developments in the first half of 2024 have only strengthened our view that a higher-interest-rate environment is here to stay. Vanguard’s regional chief economists—Roger Aliaga-Díaz for the Americas, Jumana Saleheen for Europe, and Qian Wang for the Asia-Pacific—discuss the implications of a brewing global policy-rate divergence and the role of a higher neutral rate in this environment.

After months of stagnation, the euro area and the U.K. have finally started to grow again. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already started easing its monetary policy, and the Bank of England (BOE) may not be far behind. But future cuts will depend on continued progress in the fight against inflation.