Rapid evolution has increased AI’s potential to become a transformative economic force, with promising implications for productivity across industries. Adoption is accelerating, and while today’s AI leaders dominate headlines, tomorrow’s winners may look very different. The outlook for markets is nuanced.
The global outlook summary highlights the top-level findings of Vanguard’s full economic and market outlook.
Our 2026 economic and market outlook has insights on who the winners could be if AI proves to be transformative.
Mexico enters 2026 balancing cyclical challenges with longer-term economic optimism.
There’s been considerable hype about AI. But even the most transformative technology needs profitable business models to succeed. Qian Wang, Vanguard global head of capital market research, explains in this short video that although tech earnings have been strong, valuations may have outpaced fundamentals—raising the risk of a market pullback.
Investors may not be adequately rewarded for equity risk in the years ahead. In this short video, Vanguard Global Head of Portfolio Construction Roger Aliaga-Díaz shares why we’re leaning more conservative in our time-varying asset allocation (TVAA) portfolio—favoring a 40% stock and 60% bond mix over the traditional 60/40 approach.
Artificial intelligence is showing signs that it could reshape the global economy. According to Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis, AI investment may lead to stronger-than-expected growth in the U.S. and other leading economies. This could stabilize labor markets and even result in fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than many anticipate.