Inflation receding, recession looming

Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2023: Beating back inflation

Our outlook's theme for 2023 is "Beating Back Inflation." Ultimately, for 2023, we see inflation coming clearly down; but disinflation will come at a cost. It will come at a cost of recession across several major markets.

Some of this scenario was priced by the financial markets. Nevertheless, we may see some volatility in the months ahead. Now we've all been contending with almost generational high inflation, which, of course, has been a reflection of both tight supply—commodity markets and otherwise—as well as very strong labor demand.

Now, we see inflation peaking as we speak, which is a clear positive for consumers and households. But as I mentioned, this further disinflation will come at a cost of some demand destruction. For no other reason, central banks have to continue to weaken some of the labor demand which is leading to higher wage growth and is one of the reasons why now we're starting to see a broadening in inflation pressures.

When would a recession occur?

As we all know, no recession is pleasant, and our recession baseline is not guaranteed. And they are certainly tough to forecast in advance, but that is our forecast, for no other reason than a soft landing, in our judgment, is unlikely since a further slowdown in the labor market is needed and wage growth, quite frankly, has to come down if we are going to achieve price stability in the long run.

When would this recession potentially occur? By our best estimate, it's roughly in the middle of 2023. Now that timing will vary by market and economy. The biggest reason why we have that as the start in the United States is by that time the federal funds rate, the rate that the Federal Reserve targets, will at that point start to become above the rate of core inflation. And it's those conditions that really define restrictive territory of monetary policy, and in every recession since World War II, that Fed funds rate has exceeded the rate of inflation. That's good to bring inflation down, but it tends to come at a cost of a weaker labor market.

Our outlook for fixed income

In the bond market, bond yields could rise somewhat further. But given our outlook for central banks and how high they may take interest rates, the inversion of yield curves around the world, it's more likely than not that we will see a peaking in government bond interest rates over the course of 2023.

More positively, we will also see potentially a greater diversification benefit between stocks and bonds that certainly tends not to be the case when inflation is rising, but it certainly tends to be the case when inflation is falling.

Our outlook for equities

We know in the United States, some of that froth that we were concerned about, that has been eliminated or is being eliminated. Areas such as technology and overvalued growth stocks, we've seen a significant underperformance from them over the course of 2022.

Now currently the U.S. equity market, it’s near fair value range. It means that losses could continue. But the further any losses in the near term, more likely our long-term return projections would improve.

A reason for optimism

History clearly shows one thing, and that is that financial markets turn up before the economy does. And I like to say that with a bit of good fortune, by this time next year, the economic outlook should be a better one. And if I'm right, the financial markets will lead the way.

Notes:

All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. Be aware that fluctuations in the financial markets and other factors may cause declines in the value of your account. There is no guarantee that any particular asset allocation or mix of funds will meet your investment objectives or provide you with a given level of income. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

Investments in bonds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk.

Investments in stocks and bonds issued by non-U.S. companies are subject to risks including country/regional risk and currency risk. These risks are especially high in emerging markets. 

IMPORTANT: The projections and other information generated by the Vanguard Capital Markets Model regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. VCMM results will vary with each use and over time.

The VCMM projections are based on a statistical analysis of historical data. Future returns may behave differently from the historical patterns captured in the VCMM. More important, the VCMM may be underestimating extreme negative scenarios unobserved in the historical period on which the model estimation is based.

The Vanguard Capital Markets Model® is a proprietary financial simulation tool developed and maintained by Vanguard’s primary investment research and advice teams. The model forecasts distributions of future returns for a wide array of broad asset classes. Those asset classes include U.S. and international equity markets, several maturities of the U.S. Treasury and corporate fixed income markets, international fixed income markets, U.S. money markets, commodities, and certain alternative investment strategies. The theoretical and empirical foundation for the Vanguard Capital Markets Model is that the returns of various asset classes reflect the compensation investors require for bearing different types of systematic risk (beta). At the core of the model are estimates of the dynamic statistical relationship between risk factors and asset returns, obtained from statistical analysis based on available monthly financial and economic data from as early as 1960. Using a system of estimated equations, the model then applies a Monte Carlo simulation method to project the estimated interrelationships among risk factors and asset classes as well as uncertainty and randomness over time. The model generates a large set of simulated outcomes for each asset class over several time horizons. Forecasts are obtained by computing measures of central tendency in these simulations. Results produced by the tool will vary with each use and over time.